Mexican Economic Woes Highlighted

As I posited in my post from last week Mexico is taking a heavy third blow from the swine flu hysteria - with the US media, particularly the US cable TV networks, fanning the flames. Two articles in the more reasoned reportage of the print media have touched on these aspects. One headlined locally "Some see media flu coverage as overblown" and it does seem a bit unfair as I read recently the US recorded something like 13,000 flu deaths (another website cites 20K annually) last year from "normal" seasonal flu outbreaks. It is interesting to note that absolutely no swine flu cases have been reported in any of Mexico's most popular resort destinations, such as Los Cabos, Cancun, Puerto Vallarta, and Acapulco (a popular spot for weekend vacations from Mexican City). The other article highlighted the continuing impacts to Mexico's economy recent events have had (along with the damaging media coverage).

That article, by San Francisco Chronicle reporter Carolyn Lochhead, while focusing on the current hits that Mexico's economy is/has been taking (and how that impact will magnify an already reeling lower class) also emphasized the tremendous strides that Mexico has taken in the last 20 years. It noted the percentage of citizens deemed to live in extreme poverty has declined from 18.6% in 1990 to 9% in 2006 (I suspect though a reversal in that trend this year).

Another aspect that was cited as having a decided economic impact on Mexicans was the decline in remittances sent home by immigrants (legal and illegal) to relatives in Mexico - however, not mentioned, but somewhat mitigating is the change in in currency values - the exchange rate a year ago was around 10.5 to 1, as of today, it stood at 13.8 pesos to the dollar.

Perhaps a little more sanity (and sensitivity) would go a long way in aiding one of our most important trading partners in this time of great stress for both countries.

Is Swine Flu Killing Mexican Tourism ?

- or is it a Great Time to Go?

Mexican tourism, already in a funk because of the the depressed world economy and spiraling narco killings, has been dealt a devastating third blow with the outbreak of the swine flu.

A Yahoo! News article today reports virtually empty planes from Miami and beaches in Cancun. The Mexican central bank had predicted a 4.8% contraction in the Mexican economy this before the outbreak. No telling how much it will shrivel now and how severe the impacts will be to the tourist industry.

The peso, already at a bargain exchange rate of 13 to one earlier in the month (I was a beneficiary of that to a degree in a recent trip to La Paz and San Jose del Cabo, was at 14 to one on 4/27.

So some would argue it's a great time to travel there, me among them - it's just a question of managing risk. What are good destinations? Los Cabo, for one, the standard of living there is already high, they have a proactive state government (Baja California Sur) that has already made impressive shows of force to counteract any perception the the narco-mafiosos have made any inroads there or can operate with impunity. Airfares are dropping, and even lodgings that priced in dollars are willing to negotiate (worked for me - I managed to get a suite with kitchen for the price of a small double).

Other areas to consider would be Nayarit and Western Jalisco, both accessible from Puerto Vallarta. Similar to the stock market, when everyone's selling it's often a good time to buy.